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第三季度也是白酒销售的旺季,因此业绩表现也格外受到市场关注。
上周多只白酒股公布了三季度业绩预告,业绩集体预喜,增速与去年同期持平,但周一白酒股的股价表现却不尽如人意,盘中(000596.SZ)跌停。
在业内看来,刚刚经历了平淡的两节旺季,说明白酒消费场景并未完全恢复,增长主要来自于行业的集中和分化。
虽然今年以来白酒消费场景受到较大影响,市场动销放缓,但公告显示,(000568.SZ)、(600809.SH)等头部白酒股的前三季度业绩依然维持增长。
公告显示,泸州老窖前三季度预计实现净利润80.5亿元至82.6亿元,同比增长28.3%至31.6%,其中第三季度预计实现盈利25.2亿元至27.3亿元,同比增长23%到33%,业绩增速与上年同期接近。
山西汾酒业绩预告显示,1-9月份预计实现营业收入221亿元,同比增长28%,预计实现净利润70亿元左右,同比增长42%。计算后可见,第三季度旺季山西汾酒收入约为68亿元、净利润19.5亿元左右,同比增长32%和44%,相比于2021年第三季度47.8%和49%的略有下降,但略快于上半年。
(002304.SZ)预计今年前三季度实现营收264.4亿元左右,同比增长20.5%左右;扣非归母净利86.7亿元左右,同比增长26.5%左右。其中,第三季度预计实现营收75.3亿元左右,同比增长17.7%;扣非归母净利20.2亿元左右,同比增长20.2%,与去年同期持平。
虽然业绩预喜,不过今日白酒股股价表现整体低迷,开盘后多数白酒股即下跌,截至记者发稿时,古井贡酒跌停,洋河股份、山西汾酒跌幅超过2%。
业内猜测,古井贡酒跌停或与第三季度业绩增速不及预期有关。公告显示,古井贡酒前三季度实现收入127.6亿元,同比增长26.4%,净利润为26.2亿元,同比增长33.2%。但计算发现,其第三季度实现收入37.6亿元,同比增长21.6%,实现净利润7亿元,同比增长19.3%,这一增速比去年同期有所提升,但相比于今年上半年则有一定程度的放缓。
酒业分析师蔡学飞告诉第一财经记者,目前业绩预喜的主要是头部白酒酒企,虽然疫情阻断了部分白酒的消费场景,影响了整个行业,但一些暑期商务旅游消费、宴席消费等仍存,而头部酒企在这些场景中具有很强刚需性,销售情况向好也在情理之中,但这属于行业强分化格局下的结果,并非行业性回暖。
山西汾酒和泸州老窖等酒企在公告中也提及,业绩增长主要来自于产品结构优化,中高端或核心产品收入增长所致,并非普遍性增长。
值得注意的是,在刚刚过去的中秋国庆销售旺季,第一财经记者在市场走访时了解到,白酒等酒水销售则表现平平,呈现旺季不旺的特点,也让不少酒商对年末旺季的表现感到担忧。
不过多家机构最新研报依然看好白酒行业,认为受疫情影响国庆期间白酒板块表现平稳,未出现全行业性动销超预期现象。虽然眼下板块受疫情反复情绪压制,但在行业回款、库存、批价表现整体平稳和行业分化的背景下,板块业绩结构性分化趋势延续,强者恒强趋势会更加明显。
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