昆士兰银行表示,它对澳大利亚“非常强劲的经济”“相当乐观”,但并不是所有人都这么认为。
昆士兰银行CEO George Frrazis上周表示:“我们的经济非常强劲,我认为当你考虑到全球挑战时,我们实际上以良好状态从中走出的可能性相当高。”他说:“澳洲联储采取了相当迅速的行动来应对通胀……这就是为什么我认为澳大利亚很有可能实现软着陆。”
前一周,澳洲联储加息25个基点,将利率上调至2.6%,并以生活成本上升为理由。澳洲联储称:“和大多数国家一样,澳大利亚的通胀率太高了。全球因素在很大程度上解释了这种高通胀,但相对于经济满足需求的能力而言,强劲的国内需求也在发挥作用。”
Frazis认为,尽管房价面临压力,但“非常高的家庭储蓄”和“极低的失业率”是经济强劲增长的动力。他说:“这是在过去两年房价实际上涨39%的背景下出现的。”他后来澄清说,这个数字指的是2019年6月至今年4月期间澳大利亚的房价上涨。
来自澳大利亚领先的房地产数据提供商之一Corelogic的数据显示,澳大利亚全国的房价在过去两年中上涨了28.6%,一些省会城市的房价上涨了39%甚至更多。
根据Frrazis的说法,房市是否受到干扰的关键在于失业数据,他认为目前的失业率处于“历史低点”。澳大利亚8月份的失业率为3.5%,家庭储蓄率在3月至6月当季下降至8.7%。他说:“我们的观点是,失业可能会持续下去,这是房市受到干扰与否的关键驱动因素。”他还表示,相信澳大利亚“有充足的后盾”应对房市任何灾难性事件,理由是房主正在储蓄,并提前还款。不过,他坚持认为,澳大利亚房市的混乱“不太可能”成为现实。然而,并不是每个人都像Frazis一样乐观。根据澳洲联储的金融稳定评估,澳大利亚的高利率将增加借款人的债务偿还。报告指出,澳大利亚的收入增长没有跟上通胀的速度,家庭偿债能力下降。此外,一小部分高负债、低储蓄的借款人对于支付困难显现出“脆弱”。报告继续称:“如果经济状况,特别是失业水平,最终比预期更糟,房价大幅下跌,偿债挑战将变得更加普遍。”此外,据Sky news报道,澳大利亚助理财政部长Stephen Jones警告称,澳大利亚的经济并没有与国际经济预测中的衰退“严密隔离”。Jones补充说,澳大利亚的主要贸易伙伴处于“不稳定和恶化的”局势中,这将影响澳大利亚。他还指出,随着通胀上升,世界各地的经济都在放缓,这反过来会对澳大利亚的增长预测产生影响。他说:“我们不能对这些数字感到自满。”
兑美元日线图北京时间10月17日15:28,澳元兑美元报0.6238/39
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